The Bihar Debacle - The Best Thing to Have Happened to the BJP

Now that Nitish Kumar has been sworn in for another term of office and two of the Lalu brood are in the cabinet it is possibly the right time to tally up the gains and losses of the various parties.

Nitish Kumar – Victor (For Now)

Lalu Prasad Yadav – Victor (Along with highly educated sons)

Rahul Gandhi – Confused Victor (Lost his way to Gandhi maidan)

BJP – Loser (But the Best thing to have happened to it)

While it may be counterintuitive to believe that losing Bihar is the best thing to have happened to the BJP, I honestly believe that in the long run it will be beneficial to them.

Whatever your views on the Modi-Shah duo might be you would have to admit that they are among the canniest politicians in the game. Two adverse results in a row will give them more than enough food for thought. I am sure that they would have analysed till the cows came home and . . . oops . . . I meant would have figured out what went wrong and will definitely course correct from now on.

So what did go wrong and what can the BJP do to strengthen itself. 

In my opinion the biggest issue was Leadership.

Check hubris. You may not actually know it all. At the very least take the entire BJP fraternity with you.

Respect Opposition.

Aspirations

Reservations - A Solution

The Hardik Patel led agitation in Gujarat has once again brought the Reservation issue onto the centre-stage. However the problem with discussing Reservations is that it rarely goes beyond the Social Empowerment versus Merit debate. 

However even these two issues do not make complete sense to me.

When we say Merit should be the only criteria for admission into colleges or for getting a job, what we are saying is that someone has to have the ability to score high marks in school/college and/or have the ability to clear entrance exams like the IIT-JEE or the CAT (for the IIMs) or UPSC. Essentially we are equating Merit with the ability to manage exams in school and college and entrance exams. This clearly has nothing to do with competence later on in life. I am sure all of us know of people who have performed well academically but are fairly incompetent. 

It is obvious that competence could exist in a person who is illiterate too. It is just that he is not fortunate enough to have the luxury of a formal education or a family background that values it. Are we saying that such a person has no merit? That is a ridiculous contention and needs to be debunked immediately.

The argument that Reservations help in Social Empowerment is problematic because while we can use Reservations to bring about the betterment of the oppressed classes, there are sections of society who are economically marginalized but since they belong to the upper castes they do not get the benefit of reservations. This is clearly unfair and the claim of Social Empowerment rings hollow if it allows certain marginalized sections of society to wallow in poverty just because of their caste.  

Is there some way in which one can continue the process of reservations in such a manner that it both helps the truly marginalized and also restricts its over use? 

There is a simple solution to that. I believe the best way is to first extend reservations and then restrict them. Reservations should be extended to the poor among the upper castes along with the existing caste based reservations. And then restrict reservations in education and employment to just two generations of a family. 

How will that help? I do not think that it is anyone’s case that there is no individual among the list of schedule tribes or castes who deserves reservations to better his lot. Of course there are plenty of people who deserve it. So let them have it. And let’s exclude the ones who have already had the benefit of these provisions for a couple of generations. 

Why two generations and not just one? Very simple, for someone who has bootstrapped himself from ground level up, it would probably take him his entire career to be accepted in the society that he aspires to be in. Let’s give him some time to assimilate in that society and then let’s also give him some more time to pass on this legacy to his progeny. It is only fair that whatever gains he has got does not get frittered away because the he was not able to mentor the next generation properly. When the next generation also has the benefit of reservations in education and jobs there would be some stability in their financial and social status. Once they have achieved this state that family should be left to improve their status further through the dint of sheer merit without the intervention of the state.

This should be the exact same way in which reservations for the economically marginalized play out. Identify a certain income criteria and then allow that family to have the benefit of reservations for a couple of generations. 

There also has to be a support system in educational institutions for all students who come in through the reservations – caste based or class based. This will enable them to be on par with their batch mates when classes start. 

So will reservations be phased out totally? Not at all. They will continue to exist because there will be, for a long time to come, some or the other family who has been totally by-passed in this affirmative action. So the concept of reservation stays but the beneficiary families will keep changing from one generation to the other. Thus helping those who truly deserve support by the state and keeping away those who have already gained from the policy. I also feel that such an approach will blunt, to an extent, the animosity that exists among sections of society to the concept of reservations. 

This I feel is the most even-handed solution to the reservations imbroglio.  

#ModiInDubai

I have no doubt that hosannas will be sung about the Madison Avenue redux at the Dubai cricket stadium by Narendra Modi. All day today on Indian television and for a week on social media will see discussions aplenty about the speech. #ModiInDubai was trending during his speech itself. Clearly there is much to crow about the performance – for a politician.

However, Narendra Modi was not in the UAE just as an uber successful politician but as the Prime Minister of the country. He is my PM, he is your PM and he is the PM of Rahul baba and Sonia Gandhi too. That is the image that he should project – that of a statesman and not that of a glib politician.

I would not be a position to talk about the entire speech because I could not sit through it all but certain comments made by NaMo were not, in my view, in good taste. And therein lies the rub. I am not for a moment suggesting that it was a bad speech in its entirety or that he did not say anything of relevance at all in the 20 minutes that I watched his speech. He did. The investments, the anti-terrorism front, UAE’s support to India for a seat on the Security Council et al – all very relevant and important.

However, not every speech delivered needs to be of the type given at a political rally. 

I was really uncomfortable with the jibes by the Prime Minister at the opposition, principally the Congress, when on foreign shores. It sounds great when you are taking the battle to the opposition when on campaign trail but sounds petty in this scenario.

“There are 700 flights from India to Dubai but it has taken 34 years for a PM to visit you.” Really, was that required? And also the statement about the results of the General Elections being celebrated as much in Dubai as in India is a statement befitting the President of the BJP addressing the crowd. Not the PM of the country speaking on foreign soil.

I do not wish to sound unduly negative about the Prime Minister but the overall feel that I got from the speech was that it was a PR spiel. And that put me off. Work silently and let others sing your praises. There seem to be enough and more willing to do that in any case. Why tom tom your supposed successes yourself? It does not behove a PM who is on a visit to a foreign land.

Modiji you have won the general elections. You need not keep telling us how awesome you are or keep attacking poor Rahul baba’s party. We all know that you are competent and that Rahul Baba and Co. messed up, which is why you came to power with such a mandate. You can exit campaign mode now.

There are promises to keep, and miles to go before you sleep. Especially since you have made so many of them during your election campaign. Let’s start ticking them off one by one now. It is High Time.

The Dream Cabinet

Creating Dream Teams is a popular past-time among sports enthusiasts across all sports. I thought I would take this concept and apply it to politics, more specifically to governance. Here is my Dream Cabinet for India, based totally on my opinion on who might hold a particular portfolio with distinction.

Prime Minister
Lal Bahadur Shastri: Incorruptible, decisive and a truly humble man. He gets my vote for the Prime Ministerial post.

Home Minister
Vallabhai Patel: Need I say more? There are enough and more problems for the Sardar to tackle today.

External Affairs
Jawaharlal Nehru: He had a genuine world view which would help India in this day and age. He would need to stop being a touch holier than thou with the Americans though.

Finance Minister
Chakravarti Rajagopalachari: I would like to go totally off tangent here. My choice is Chakravarti Rajagopalachari. Not only was he erudite but he had the vision to talk about a liberal state (economically) at the height of Nehruvian socialism. The 21 point programme of the Swatantra party was a truly liberal document.

Defence Minister
Arun Singh: Extremely well read on matters military, he was even called in by Jaswant Singh at the height of the Kargil war, and upright.

Minister of Communications & IT and Science & Technology
Rajiv Gandhi: Those who knew him well called him extremely intelligent and level-headed. There is no doubt that he was the one who set the stone rolling for the telecom revolution that followed later. He was also clear that India needed the Service sector to progress. Something that we have clearly acknowledged now.

Minister of Railways
Madhav Rao Scindia: He handled the very same portfolio competently. Would make a great team with Bibek Debroy at the Rail Bhavan.

Minister of I&B and Parliamentary Affairs        
Atal Behari Vajpayee: As politics gets more and more fractious the country needs someone who can reach out to everyone in Parliament. He is the right man for the job. Moreover we need a liberal minded person in the I&B ministry. 

Minister of Law and Justice
Dr B. R. Ambedkar: Enough said.

Minister of Minority Affairs
Maulana Azad: We need someone extremely erudite and with stature across the country. The Maulana has both erudition and stature. Not just that, he steered the Education ministry in a newly independent India with aplomb. That would also help him in working on the low levels of education among India’s minorities.

Minister of Rural Development; Panchayati Raj; Drinking Water & Sanitation
Morarji Desai: A staunch Gandhian and inflexibly principled Morarjibhai handled the Revenue and Agriculture portfolio in the 1937 Bombay Government. He brought in far-reaching reforms in land revenue that helped the rural poor. Though he has handled other more ‘important’ portfolios like Finance, Commerce & Industry and was both Deputy PM and PM, given his background and conviction it is the Rural Development Ministry for him.

Minister of Agriculture and Food & Public Distribution
C Subramaniam: He helped usher in the Green Revolution. He would be the right person to handle Agriculture and its allied portfolio Food & Public Distribution.

Minister of Civil Aviation
Nitish Kumar: He capably handled the portfolios at the centre and has made a difference in governance in Bihar. Civil Aviation clearly needs a capable administrator and reformer. (Reformer because he needs to figure out what to do with Air India.) I believe he is both.

Environment   
Jairam Ramesh: A feisty environment minister; he took on the builders lobby, industrialists and his own cabinet colleagues while enforcing environmental laws. Given the state of the environment, we require someone like him back at the helm of affairs.

Minister of Human Resource Development
PV Narasimha Rao: We need a scholar and we need a doer. He fits the bill. A consummate politician he was also a linguist, author and reformer. The ideal man to head this ministry at this stage in India.

Minister of Women & Child Development and Health & Family Welfare
Rajkumari Amrit Kaur: Minister of Health in the first cabinet, President of the WHO, driving force behind setting up the AIIMS. Quite an impressive resume that.

Tourism
Naveen Patnaik: Managed to pull Odisha out of economic doldrums and has been in power since 2000. He has not only demonstrated his political and administrative acumen but also shown his political side too in these past 15 years. Led a jet-setting life style, rubbing shoulders with the likes of Mick Jagger, Jackie Kennedy etc, till he returned to India in 1998. Just the right person to head this ministry.

Minister of Heavy Industries & Public Enterprises and Infrastructure
Narendra Modi: And finally the man of the moment. Given his reputation as a doer and implementer he would be perfect for the Industries portfolio. Obviously the right person to see through the ‘Make in India’ policy. If he were to get his skills sets to play in upgrading public enterprises and infrastructure – road, ports and airports then we would be in kosher.

Modiji Please Talk to Us

A quick flashback to the 2014 Election campaign showcases only one thing – Narendra Modi the communicator par excellence at work. People across the country lapped up what he had to say, not only the crowds at the BJP/NDA rallies but also the middle class and the intelligentsia. If the medium was the message then, wow, look at how he used the online media. Twitter was his favourite hunting ground and it was a wonderful way to communicate with the people over the heads of the Main Stream Media.

The humour, the felicity with the language, the assuredness of manner and the oratory mesmerized all and sundry. Ranged against him, primarily, was the mother-son duo of Sonia & Rahul Gandhi and then PM Manmohan Singh – not the best of communicators by any reckoning.

Modi rightly criticized the then PM for staying quiet in the face of serious allegations of corruption against his cabinet members. He even labeled him Maun Mohan Singh. All of us applauded Modi when he came up with these witticisms, both because he delivered them with a punch and because they hit home with stunning accuracy.

The rest is history – An electoral victory not seen in the last 30 years, for the NDA but essentially for Modi.  

What contributed to this victory? Apart from the general disillusionment of the people against the UPA II government it was clearly Modi – The Communicator that turned the tide in the NDA’s favour.

Which is what brings me to the current situation, where is Modi the communicator on an issue that seems to be getting murkier by the day – The Lalit Modi episode. Actually it is hardly an episode; it is one continuing road show with tweets from LaMo on a regular basis. There is hardly a statement or even a tweet from the PM.

I find this odd and also at some level insulting. If one were to take a look at the PM's twitter feed there are tweets on a book release, meeting with ex-Australian PMs, wishing Luxembourg on its National Day etc but not a single tweet on the LaMo issue.

Why is there no response from the PM? Do we not need to know what the PM thinks on issues that concern his cabinet colleague and also a CM from his party? Is twitter only tell me that he has released some book and met some has-been Aussie politician?

If he is the ace communicator, which I am certain he is, he should communicate when the nation needs him to. Not just when he wishes to say something.   

To give him the benefit of the doubt, perhaps there is no tweet on this issue because the wheels of the government are in motion and he would not like to engage publicly at this juncture. Now, this is absolutely right. Why jeopardise on-going investigations?

Or maybe the BJP/NDA is actually assessing the potential damage that could be caused by LaMo and is, therefore, a bit on the quiet side. While this is not a very comforting thought it is still absolutely acceptable. After all one would want to figure out the extent of the mess before tweeting about it.

Or it could be the thought that a news break about another issue would bury this one and therefore one need not worry about the same. Given the attention span that most of us and the TV channels have, this is a fair assumption. 

Or it could be sheer brazenness. A ‘dekhte hain kya hoga’ attitude.

It is the last possibility that scares me no end.

The one common theme that I think I have observed in the PM is that he likes to engage on his own terms. Which is fine, who among us would not like to do that. But the issue is that most of us are not in government or even in politics. And therefore we can choose when we would like to communicate and when not. It will not hurt anyone or might impact only a few.

But when the PM of the country, who is otherwise fairly voluble, decides to clam up when something unpleasant about his party comes up it worries me a bit. There is clearly a mess due to the Lalit Modi revelations, I would want the PM to come forth and clarify the issue.

For all that I know not talking to the people on this issue maybe an absolute masterstroke but I for one would like a little more consistency in communication. Primarily because Narendra Modi has raised my expectations so much, that I would like him to address me when I need him to and not just when he wishes to. 

Now is that too much to ask for?

You too, Sushma Swaraj?

Et tu, Sushmaji? It is with a heavy heart that I write to you on this issue of you facilitating Lalit Modi’s travel documents in the UK through Keith Vaz.

I always felt that you stood out in politics – both at the party level and in parliament. And once in the Modi cabinet I believed that you stood out not just because of the quiet dignity that you brought to the office but also because unlike your motor mouth counterpart – Smriti Irani – you actually got along with people from all sides of the spectrum and put your head down and got things done in the ministry.

I have seen you endure your share of sexist remarks, but you took them all in your stride to make an impact in parliament and now in the cabinet.

That you and the Modiji & Amit Shah duo have not shared the best of relations was an open secret. Truth be told I kind of admired you when you opposed Modiji’s appointment as Chairman of the BJP’s campaign committee. I remember you actually gave a dissent note when the parliamentary board overruled objections to declare him the PM candidate. You had also argued that Amitbhai Shah should be suspended from the party after the CBI arrested him for his alleged complicity in the ‘fake encounters’. These things endeared you to me because it seemed that here was a politician who stood up for something that she believed in.

These I obviously admired in you and also the fact that like most of the members of the BJP you did not really have any scams linked to your name.

Well, not entirely. There is a not too savoury incident in your political life too. I allude to the Bellary brothers. They really came into prominence when you decided to fight the bye-elections in Bellary, Karnataka in 1999 and they managed to create a mining empire that is rumoured to have controlled the Karnataka government no less. The talk at that time was that they had your protection. Later on you did distance yourself from them but I think that was a bit too late. The damage to your reputation had been done. However, I did appreciate you sidelining them. I had hoped at that time that it was a question of your morals coming to the fore albeit belatedly rather than the possibility that they had exhausted their usefulness.   

And now this?

You admit that you facilitated the UK authorities issuing travel documents to Lalit Modi to head to Portugal because his wife was unwell. Did you bother to check if he really needed to sign any consent document?  His wife was clearly conscious at that time and it was not as if she was not able to sign any consent papers herself. Also, it appears written consent might not be required under Portuguese law. 

You were the External Affairs Minister at that time too. Did you not feel the need to get the Foreign Ministry (or you yourself) to do a bit of background check on the same? All it needed was a Google search.

Or did you not do it because the Lalit Modi connect that you have is more than just humanitarian in nature?

Do you not understand that Bansuri, your daughter, appearing for Lalit Modi in the Dehi High Court when Lalit Modi challenged the revocation of his passport means that you have  conflict of interest when you talk about his getting travel documents from another country?

You got Keith Vaz to put pressure on UK’s top immigration official to grant British travel papers to Lalit Modi, who then got the same in less than 24 hours.

Do you not get ‘Conflict of Interest’? Your daughter appears in a particular case for a ‘fugitive’ of the Indian government and you blithely work toward his getting his travel papers organized by another country?

If the issue of conflict of interest is not bad enough it appears as if there could actually be a quid pro quo to this all. Did you really get Lalit Modi to ensure that your husband’s nephew got into the Law school at Sussex University? If you did then this case just got a bit murkier.

Think about it Sushmaji, it does not look pretty and for god’s sake stay away from Twitter. Better people than you have gotten screwed because of intemperate and badly thought through statements on it. 

Rahul Baba - You are the Winnah

And the Winnah is Rahul Gandhi. I am appalled that no media outlet has led with this story in the past couple of days. Don’t they see the significance of THE announcement by Lalu? No? That is ridiculous. I can only put it down to the lack of intellectual heft in the media these days. Damn.

Let me enlighten all and sundry about why I am so appalled at this lack of comment by the media. The endorsement by Lalu Prasad Yadav of Nitesh Kumar’s candidature for CM-ship is a straight victory for Rahul Gandhi. You can’t see it? Good lord, do I have to spell out everything for you folks?

Well then, here it is.   

Let’s take a dekko at the 2010 Bihar Assembly Results. The JD(U) won 115 seats and the BJP won 91 in the 243 seat Assembly. The RJD did not do well at all and won only 22 seats. The congress got 4 seats out of; well, this has to be said sotto voce; the 243 it contested.

No No No, that the JD(U)-BJP combine swept the elections is not the awesome point that I am trying to make. The awesome thing here is that the Congress, through diligence and hard work and intelligent campaigning, achieved the miracle of getting less than what it did in October 2005. It had then won 9 seats out of the 51 it contested. Now, you gotta admit, that is talent.

Flashback done, cut to 2015…

Let’s first look at the Jodi No. 1 of 2010. Ah, but we can’t. That is so because there is this teeny weeny catch – the JD(U) and the BJP aren’t in the tight embrace that they were in in 2010. After a slightly acrimonious falling out, both the JD(U) and the BJP are aiming to win the elections on their own.

Now, whatever else you could accuse the duo of Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar, you cannot accuse them of being uninterested in power. They most definitely are. And we silly geezers can bet our bottom futi kaudi that each of them would go all out to prove a point – that life after the break up isn’t all that bad. And the power that comes with it wouldn’t hurt at all.  

Lalu Prasad Yadav; the clown nonpareil, the consummate communicator, the . . . whatever else; has been pushed to a corner. He is clearly not the strong political force that he once was. In fact, he almost gulped poison while endorsing Nitish Kumar. Alright, that was a bit of exaggeration but he did mention that he would be willing to do that too, figuratively, of course, to stop the BJP from coming to power.  

So what have we got here? We have got a BJP that HAS to win the elections to prove that the Modi wave, not withstanding that Anarchist in Delhi, is up and about. We have an RJD that has to make an impact in this election if it has to stay relevant in politics. And we have a Nitesh Kumar who can kiss his chances of political relevance goodbye if he does not win this time.  

Do or die for the three major political entities in Bihar.

And, in the meantime, what about Rahul Baba’s party?

This time let’s assume it gets to contest about 15 seats given over by the magnanimous JD(U)-RJD combine. What you saying? They won’t be given those many seats? Oh! Come on, Mummy’s gonna help.

Let’s further assume that it manages to win seven of them. I know that would sound far-fetched to a lot of people out there, but bear with me; I am trying to make an important point here.

So even if the Congress wins about 7 seats, about 3% of the seats, my guess is that Congressmen will go to town talking about this ‘victory’.

It will be heralded as the green shoots of recovery and Rahul baba would be hailed not only as a smooth talking, one-liners maroing heir apparent but also as a sharp operator by the Congress cohorts.

And who would not want such a thing to happen to him?

Congrats Baba, you are the Winnah.

The RaGa 2.0 Strategy - Shoot & Scoot

Have you noticed Rahul Gandhi of late?  

Unless you have been holidaying in some cool climes away from India you could not have escaped the information overload about the new look RaGa. The RaGa who is taking pot shots at the government almost on a daily basis has had reams of print and lots of airtime dedicated to him.

Rahul Gandhi seems to be adopting a ‘shoot and scoot’ policy and this is being lapped up by both Congressmen and the media. The latest one-liner was the one about Dr Man Mohan Singh being invited to 7 RCR to lecture (paathshala was the word he used) Narendra Modi on the Indian economy. One would have to admit that this was a funny comment. But it was just that. A funny comment delivered to a group of students (the NSUI) with a naughty school boy glint.

What was the response to it? Coverage on all news channels with motor-mouth Arnab Goswami leading the tribe with (probably) an entire hour dedicated to dissecting the comment.

Why is there this kind of coverage to any and all utterances by RaGa? Is this a result of Rahul having lowered expectations to such an extent that so long as he does not trip himself up while walking on a flat, impediment free, ground he is going to be hailed as a miracle worker?

I obviously have no idea if any or all of his interventions are very well researched or well thought through or are merely meant to be facetious. However, clearly, in spite of the condescension that the BJP brigade seems to have for him, he seems to have rattled the BJP with these comments.

I wonder why? What is it that Rahul Gandhi is doing now that is so worrying for the BJP?

In my opinion it is not Rahul per se that they are afraid of. They seem to be afraid of the power of the tabloid press and the television media to take sound bites and create or destroy an image of a person or a party based on that. In most debates on television, there is no scope for a nuanced exchange of views. It is literally a shouting match between the panelists with the anchor joining in for good measure on most channels.

In such situations, it is these smart ass comments that win through. These comments do not mean anything, they do not add to the understanding of any issue and they definitely do not have any erudition backing them up. But they grab headlines. They seem to have the ability to rouse the faithful and demoralize opponents.

This is probably why the BJP is responding to these barbs thrown at them by Rahul and why they seem a bit flustered when doing so. After all the BJP knows the power of the smart one-liners – 56 inch ki chaathi, Maa Bete ki Sarkaar, Yuvraj come immediately to mind.    

This is where it gets worrying for the country. If public discourse is going to be reduced to slanging matches on television and in Parliament and it is the politician with the one-liner who gets the accolades then we are on a slippery slope. And irrespective of what Rahul and Modi say about each other it clearly does not bode well for the country because we need erudition in comments made by politicians. Not just silly one-liners and nicknames. We can leave those to stand-up comedians.  

And the Deed was Done

The Deed is done. NaMo was finally announced as the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Prime Ministerial candidate on Friday the 13^th. That announcement should have ended the speculation and the behind-the-scenes-intrigues and what have you, but it really did not. 

What had actually happened was that the Tallest Leader a.k.a. Lal Krishna Advani was a strong dissenter and refused to change his mind from a few months back when NaMo was appointed the head of the campaign committee. LKA seems to have raised quite the same issues as last time – that Modi is a polarizing presence and that the BJP would be better off either postponing his anointment as the Prime Ministerial candidate or projecting another leader altogether. 

When LKA had voiced dissent the last time around; he was, in turns, placated and coerced into going along. This time Speaking Head after Speaking Head of the BJP appeared on National TV and spoke of their respect for him but went on to add, sadly, that he is out of tune with the aspirations of the cadres and the Indian masses. The aspiration obviously is to see NaMo as the Prime Minister. 

A week ago LKA certainly looked like a petulant patriarch who was getting increasingly isolated within his own party and who, for all intents and purposes, was talking nonsense by arguing that the BJP would be better off without NaMo at the helm of affairs. 

Today the thinking is that LKA is resigned to the fact that NaMo is the BJP’s PM candidate and that there is nothing he can do now to change the situation. This ‘realization’ probably explains the praise for NaMo’s rural electrification record a couple of days back.

But why on earth was LKA objecting to NaMo? Especially when according to the BJP Talking Heads the entire rank and file of the party was solidly behind NaMo and that they sensed a wave for NaMo across the country. Is it because the Tallest Leader still harbours Prime Ministerial ambitions himself? Or is there solid ground for him to object?  Are LKA’s fears as trivial as is being made out to be by the NaMo supporters? Or are they very valid points that are just being swept under the carpet by the top brass of the BJP?

This Blog, over the next few weeks, will try to analyze if there is merit in LKA’s argument. This is not a partisan blog, neither of us is either a fanatical supporter of NaMo or a rabid opponent. This is merely an attempt to cut through the noise and see if it is truly possible for the BJP under NaMo to win at the hustings in 2014. 

Briefly, a political party needs 273 to come to power at the Centre. Will the BJP be able to achieve that magical number on it own? Highly unlikely that the BJP can get there on its own. In fact it is almost impossible that anyone within the BJP thinks they will be able to come to power at the Centre on their own. That means that the BJP needs the NDA to come to power. As of now, the components of the NDA seem to be the SS and the SAD. Who are the others? There do not seem to be too many others at this point in time to support them.

Let’s run through the laundry list: 

1.       The Communists ---- hahahaha

2.       DMK --- NO

3.       AIADMK – probably

4.       JD(S) - UNLIKELY

5.       TDP – Unlikely

6.       YRS Congress –No?

7.       NCP – NO

8.       BJD – UNLIKELY

9.       TMC – NO

10.   JD (U) – NO

11.   National Conference – NO

12.   The Jharkhand Groups – Probably

Given this scenario who are the allies who are going to bring them the seats that will bring them to power? Do they need allies or can they do with political parties who will provide them outside support post elections? Will these parties come on board with NaMo at the helm, after all they have their own political compulsions?

All of these questions and the answers to them are crucial for the BJP to come to power. Could this be the reason LKA had a problem with NaMo and not out of spite or thwarted ambition?

This is precisely what we plan to explore in great detail along with a state wise break-up of the seats that the BJP/NDA is likely to garner in the 2014 elections.

With Sameer Nair 

The Economist and the Antiquated Dynastic Machine

How oh how did I miss this one? Must be age catching up with me or maybe it was just that work got in the way. But I missed out on something that was so obvious that I am ashamed to write about it a day after Times of India published it. What I mean is, I have due respect for TOI as an organisation and its ability to garner breaking news and all that but, how could I not see what a TOI journo saw as a newsworthy item.

I am referring to this article in The Economist - http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13492427 - which was quoted by Digvijay Singh and then used by Abhishek Manu Singhvi. They very proudly spoke about this piddly little line in the article that goes, "For this reason, The Economist, if it had a vote, would plump for Mr Singh’s Congress."

If only they took the trouble of reading the entire article... Let me share with you a few nuggets in the article, in case you decide not to read the entire thing.

Nugget No. 1:

Congress, despite able technocrats, like Mr Singh, remains an antiquated dynastic machine.

Good for Dr. Singh but what a line about the Congress party. Antiquated. Dynastic. But then I guess Diggy Raja would not mind these one bit. After all we know about all these don't we?

Nugget No. 2:

The prime ministership was bestowed on Mr Singh by Sonia Gandhi, the party’s Italian-born leader.

Now this one is not so complimentary to Dr. Singh is it? Hey wait. There is more to come...

Nugget No. 3:

He seems to be keeping the seat warm for her son, Rahul, a pleasant-seeming but unconvincing chap apparently destined to represent the fifth generation of his family to lead Congress.

So Dr. Singh is keeping the seat warm for Rahul baba is he? Now how is it different from what the BJP keeps talking about? Nightwatchman. Weakest Prime Minister et al. And Rahul baba is not the messiah that the Congress has made him out to be. He is an "unconvincing chap". Ouch.

Nugget No. 4:

Nor is the economically liberal Mr Singh a typical Congress-man. Much of the party is still nostalgic for the Nehruvian socialism that for so long impeded India’s growth.

This is not as damaging, but still, the talk about Neruvian socialism and how it was responsible for shackling India should be embarrassing to the Cong party.

Finally Nugget No. 5:

In power, the BJP also had a creditable record of economic management.

The article has not exactly been nice to the BJP but it definitely has given a thumbs up to the BJP's economic track record.

My suggestion to the Cong. spokespersons: Just as I tell my students to read the entire passage before they start answering questions in CAT/CET, my advice to the Congress-wallahs is read the entire article before you start waving it in front of the public and media. Especially in this day and age when access to information is not restricted just to the power elite.

Sukhoi-30 crashes

In all the hullabaloo of the third phase of the election people seem to have missed out on a "minor" but important accident. An IAF Sukhoi-30 MKI fighter jet crashed at Rajmathai village, 170km from Jaisalmer town of Rajasthan on Thursday, killing one of its pilots.

We have gotten used to reading reports of the MIG-21 crashing almost regularly but this is the first time that a Sukhoi-30 MKI, which was inducted into IAF in 2002, has crashed.

A technical snag was what was behind the crash. While I have no much idea of fighter aircraft and their technical issues, I am just worried that the Su-30 does not become another series of "Flying Coffins" that the IAF flies.

Angry Mumbaikars vote - All 42% of them!!!

“Angry Mumbai wants answers” “Mumbai simmers with anger post terror attacks” and other angry headlines dominated newspapers and websites and Blogs immediately after 26/11.

Once the shock wore off started another set of headlines. This time they read “Thousands participate in candlelight vigils” and other variants of the same. (Incidentally I mentioned in class that all the candle light vigils seemed to be at the Taj and at the Gateway and none at the CST station. I suggested that participants in these activities seemed to be a very South Mumbai specific crowd that was shocked that their Taj was attacked as opposed to ordinary people who travel by train and BEST buses. Most students, surprisingly, agreed with my thinking.)

Then started the next phase where Facebook groups were started. Campaigns were initiated on how we need a CEO for Mumbai and about how it was high time politicians were held accountable for their actions.

I sat back bemused and wondered through all this if the average middle class/upper middle class Mumbaikar had suddenly become such a politically aware citizen. The other thought that I had was that this was, as usual, a result of a total disconnect between the English language media plus the Blogosphere – the two sources that I get my information from – and the Mumbaikar. My initial reaction was – balls, no middle/upper-middle/rich Mumbaikar can possibly be interested in politics. And that it is all a hype created by the media. I felt that all this would last till maybe December 26th 2008 and no further.

That is when I had a change of heart. I thought that I was increasingly becoming cynical in my dotage and that I should be willing to give the Cuffe Parade wallahs and the Bandra-ites their due. Maybe they had awakened to the fact that vigilance is indeed the eternal price of democracy.

Then came today (yesterday now). The first election post 26/11 and what do I see? A voter turnout of 42% - 45%. Well well well so much for citizen activism. So much for young voters who wanted to change the system. Where were they? Earning a well deserved break because we have 4 holidays in a row? Seriously where the hell is the middle class Mumbaikar? Or has the passage of five months completely driven the issue out of her mind?

For once I am terribly sad that I was right. I was right when I said that the Mumbaikar is not going to care beyond a month or two. I was right when I felt that creating Facebook groups will not translate into active participation in issues concerning the city/state/country. I was also right, unfortunately, that participation in candle light vigils will not translate into people walking out of their houses on a “holiday” and voting.

Damn when will the middle class Mumbaikar prove me wrong?

Ps: The Facebook group “In Remembrance of the 11/26 Mumbai Bombings & All Those Affected Discussions” has 9057 members and 13 discussion topics. The last Discussion Topic on 26/11 was on December 7th 2008. The latest one is on Greenpeace (April 28th 2009). So much for political and social activism.

Sher-e-Punjab!!!!

See it is like this, I have immense respect for the current Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh and his abilities as an economist. And I also like the fact that he is this quiet individual who goes about his job without too much hullabaloo. A quintessential professional. In a political environment populated by loud mouths, extremely corrupt netas, murderers, smug buggers et al he is a breath of fresh air (even if 76 years old.)

At the other end of the spectrum is Rahul Gandhi, the dimpled darling of the Congress party and Mama Sonia, not necessarily in that order. Now he is someone I donot respect all that much. Maybe given time he is going to turn out just fine but as of now, respect for Rahul-ji? Nada. Nyet. NO.

So when Rahul-ji says that Dr. Manmohan Singh is the Sher-e-Punjab then I can only look on in an amused manner. The fact is that Dr. Manmohan Singh is not anywhere close to being a SHER... In fact if there is any label that could be applied to Dr. Singh then it should probably be "The Soporific Singh". The reason - His public speaking skills are really atrocious and I seriously believe that he is probably the worst speaker the Prime Minister's office has seen in India. Ever. And given that this includes worthies such as H.D. Deve Gowda that is saying something.

What amazes me is that an academic and that too one in the premier Schools of the country -Dr. Singh has taught at the Delhi School of Economics apart from JNU and Punjab University - could be this bad in speaking skills. I can well imagine the situation of students who attended his classes, especially post lunch... Zzzzzzzzz

And such a man Sher-e-Punjab... er Rahul-ji I think not. The Soporific Singh is a much better adjective.

Chiranjeevi enters Politics - Finally

So Chiru has decided to enter politics…. Finally!!! I watched the entire press conference over and over again on TV. Not that I had much of a choice…. all Telugu channels were beaming nothing but Chiru annaiya and his press conference.
And he did not disappoint. He got all his lines down pat and also did not forget to turn on the charm.
I for one am certainly looking forward to his party shaking up the established political duopoly in AP. He has the fan following across the state to make a serious bid for power and I do think he is right when he says that there is a political vacuum and therefore space for another political party. Chiranjeevi also has the credentials in that he has established a Blood Bank and has involved himself with other social service activities. Shows he has his heart in the right place.
Having said that, I have a few observations about Chiru’s new party.
For starters I am less than impressed by the fact that in some regions of Andhra Pradesh, particularly Rayalaseema, there have been quite a few defections from the Telugu Desam into the yet to be named party. The general feeling is that people from the Congress will begin to migrate to his party once the elections are announced. Congressmen who perceive a brighter chance of getting elected if they join him will definitely do so. Nothing wrong in people migrating to other parties, the best of politicians have done it: Chandrababu Naidu, V.P. Singh etc etc. Chiru himself defended it stoutly by saying that there was nothing wrong in having people who believe in him and his ideology join him. True. No doubt about that one. But still for a party that has come about because they believe that there is a political vacuum and that they should bring about change I think this is a bit strange.
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I mean what change are they going to bring about if all the key party functionaries are people who have been in politics for a long time? And especially those who have been part and parcel of the rough and tumble of factional politics in Rayalaseema.
The other issue is that Chiru kept talking about Youth. Looking at the kind of celebrations that accompanied the announcements and also the general attitude of the ‘youth’ I have a feeling that it is nothing more than just hero-worshipping youngsters who are taken in by his glamour.
A few months back there was the ugly incident where another Telugu film star Dr. Rajasekhar when asked if he would join Chiranjeevi’s party replied in the negative and also questioned Chiru’s political experience. This was enough to set off the Chiru fan association. They physically attacked Rajashekar and his family and it took the intervention of Chiranjeevi to cool tempers. This just goes to show the kind of people who are supporting him. All very well if he is trying to get together a bunch of storm troopers but since that does not seem to be his objective he very clearly needs to control these elements in his party. The question is, can he?
The other thing is that it is not very clear who he means by Youth. The unemployed youth? The rural youth? College going youth? I am slightly confused about it all.
While there is no doubt that he can mobilize the crowds the question is can he keep them with him for another year till the elections? These are people who are very clearly high on adrenalin. Just the right sort to generate enthusiasm when a party is being launched but are they the sort who will stay the course when it comes to organisation building? Building and sustaining an organisation is completely different from riding on the streets on bikes, waving flags and bursting crackers. But then maybe I am wrong, only time will tell.
The other thing that he very clearly needs to spell out is his views on Telangana. There already are people who are quitting the TRS to join Chiru’s new party. And they are of the view that Chiru will support the breaking away of the Telangana region from AP. If Chiru decides otherwise then there will be a lot of malcontents in his party. He hails from coastal Andhra and has a very strong following in the Rayalseema region. I am not too sure if supporting Telangana will go down well in those parts, esp. in coastal Andhra. Not a great situation either way. He avoided responding to any question regarding this issue but unlikely that he can duck this one for much longer. If he does not make his stance clear on the 26th then there is bound to be disappointment.
When NTR launched the Telugu Desam and was cris-crossing Andhra Pradesh on his Chaitanya Ratham in 1983/84, he called the Naxals Freedom Fighters when he crossed into Khammam district - then the hotbed of Naxal violence. Now this is not something Chiru can afford to say or do. How he deals with the Naxal issue is another thing that will be interesting to say the least.
I am also slightly uncomfortable about people who talk about Mother Teresa as their role model. I know I know. It is irrational, disrespectful and totally unfair but there it is. I guess everyone is allowed their idiosyncrasies and this is mine. I mean the moment anyone talks about Mother Teresa being their role model I am reminded of all the Beauty Queens who used to dutifully trot out her name during various pageants. But then let me give Chiru the benefit of doubt. Maybe he really is inspired by Mother Teresa! After all he has proved that with his various associations with Charitable organisations.
Anyway I am glad that Chiru has taken the first step. I now look forward to the 26th to see what he has to say in terms of the agenda for his party and what his plans for the future are. Until then I will keep my euphoria on hold.

All the VERY BEST Chiru.

View my site: http://www.cafezika.com/

Netas & their Court Cases

It’s been a long long time since I have posted anything. In fact I should probably consider myself a newbie at blogging given the time that has elapsed since the last post. Be that as it may I thought I should get down to some serious writing, at least on the weekends. So here is the second coming.

I was at some point in time, quite long ago really, a fan of Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar and his column “Swaminomics” in the Times of India. Over the years kind of felt he was losing his grip. But a couple of weeks back he came out with a gem that puts him right on top of my favourites list once again.

In the article “Ten commandments for Dr. Singh”, Swaminathan has come out with, “Thou shalt propose a law giving seniority to all cases of elected legislators over all others.”

I think it is a brilliant suggestion. More so because of its utter simplicity. I wonder why our founding fathers did not think of this simple bit of legislation. Maybe they never imagined that a day would come when the state legislatures and also the Parliament would play host to people we would rather have behind bars.

However the situation now is that there are hordes of criminals getting into politics. We even have a situation where there are people who contest elections from behind bars.

And get elected.

Obviously these gentlemen aspire to be public representatives not out of any altruistic nature or a burning desire to serve society but because it gives them the clout to stall/halt judicial proceedings against themselves.

Now if getting elected to any official position becomes a catalyst for all the pending cases against them to be brought to the front burner, then only the most brain dead of criminals would like to be involved in the political process.

I would go further to suggest that all state legislatures and the Parliament should have a fast track court established on their premises to try the worthies who have broken the law. Why should courts be located inside State Assemblies? Can’t justice be served from the current premises of the High Courts? Of course it can. Just can’t resist the idea that as Legislators enter the Assembly they can also see the Annexe of the High Court and know for certain that they can’t escape a visit to its premises if they run foul of the law.

And for career politicians who have a lot of frivolous cases registered against them, there is nothing to despair. Because all the law would say is that, “all your cases will be fast tracked and tackled by a special court”. So in case of complaints that are completely frivolous or are obviously the result of leading an agitation against some policy of the government they could also get some judicial respite. Immediately. And such a rule should be welcomed by those politicians who claim that they are being victimized.

However if the cases are serious such as murder, rape, extortion, kidnapping and other such allied activities that some of our illustrious leaders indulge in then the law should take its own course and that too bloody quickly.
I think this would be a great way to clean up the system. Wonder if there is some way in which one can achieve this.

Any ideas folks?

Ab tera kya hoga Madan Mohan? [The "Office for Profit" wallah dude]

I love Indian politicians and have good reasons for doing so. After all they have always come to my aid, even in my lowest hour, by providing me with a few moments of unadulterated mirth.

Take for instance the Congress gambit of getting Jaya Bachchan evicted from the Rajya Sabha. It went like clockwork with the poor lady turfed out by the President for holding an office of profit. So far so good. Then suddenly a pesky someone realised that, hey! The Queen Bee (Madam Sonia Gandhiji, please do I have to spell out everything?) herself occupies an office of profit.

And as it turns out the whole episode returned to bite the Congress in its collective ass.

Of course, Sonia Gandhi is attempting to emerge as the one who sacrificed her post for the sake of propriety in public life but this time it might not wash. Hopefully.

Meanwhile on the Left flank:

The Left parties are traditionally the ones who go on and on about morality in public life. But suddenly they find that they cannot do much this time. And why is that? Oooo well! 10 of their own MPs apparently also hold an office of profit. This list includes the much respected Mr. Somnath Chatterjee, who just happens to be the Speaker of the Lok Sabha. So, to hell with all this morality shorality business, none of them will resign.

Fair enough. But if they think Didi (Mamta Bannerjee) is going to let them off the hook they are sadly mistaken. I am sure Didi is going to go after them in her shrill Bonglish till the time she heads into the assembly elections. If I was a Left party MP I would probably resign just to keep her quite.

However what hurts me, really really hurts me, is that no one is talking about dear Mr. Madan Mohan, the dude who started it all. If the Congress is to be believed then the complaint against Jaya Bachchan was filed by Madan Mohan in his individual capacity. If that really is the truth I wonder how he must be feeling right now. He must have become a virtual pariah in his own party. Tch tch.

Ab tera kya hoga Madan Mohan?

Lalu has performed, where's his incentive?

Authored by Sameer Nair

I pick up my pink paper and am confronted with the following headlines.

Top line Growth of 18%, Profit Growth of 78 %, Cash Balances at a healthy 6900 crores, improvement in operational efficiencies.

Surely this is one stock that our analyst friends would have given a thumbs up to. And the CEO – he ought to have earned a hefty performance bonus. Running into Crores.

Sadly for this CEO it is not to be. He heads the railway ministry and is widely regarded by the media as this buffoon who, through a mix of caste dynamics and compulsions of coalition politics, has managed to get himself the important railway ministry.

The papers were quick to clarify overtly and otherwise that this performance was completely the result of a buoyant economy. Growth in freight is an obvious by-product. Lets not get carried away. The minister has nothing to do with it. I am sure the analysts are right.

But should not a similar question also be asked of private sector managers?

Surely the quadrupling of the Sensex over the last four years has had a lot to do with the robust revenue growth of Equity Brokerage Houses. A 300 basis point fall in interest rate that happened four years ago made it possible for banks to book huge gains through bond trading. And the bond traders walked away with crores.

My friend who works at the desk in one foreign bank later confessed that it was the kind of a year in which even a monkey put in front of the trading terminal would have found it tough not to make money.

This is certainly not an argument against performance-based pay. Without a doubt, such a system works wonders for the motivation of employees. The point is that one should be careful in defining performance. There has to be a distinction between luck and skill.

Our current definition seems to be that an MBA from a premier institute generally found in an expensive suit and red tie who has "performed", has done so because of skill, while the pyjama-clad, pan chewing minister from Chapra has been merely "lucky" to head the rail ministry in good times.

Tehelka II

Another day another scandal. This time it is about politicians taking money to ask questions. And good old Aniruddh Bahal (Yeah! the same chap who won the bad sex writing award) has got another scoop to his name.

The breast beating that has followed is really funny. This episode has apparently “lowered the dignity of Parliament” and “angry members” demanded “stern action against the guilty”. I am sure!! Laughable.

A few of them would have gone back to their govt. bungalows in Lutyens’ Delhi after their bouts of indignation and anger was demonstrated in Parliament and heaved a sigh of relief that they were not caught on tape. Bad for business all this sting wing thing. What now. I am sure there is a bunch of very annoyed Parliamentarians bemoaning a loss of yet another avenue of income. Pity these poor chaps.

But really, on a slightly more serious note, is it all that bad. Sure they did take money. And to ask questions about Catch 22 Cotton etc. So what? Why has the political establishment got its khadi pyjamas in a twist? He is merely asking a question. This highlights an issue. An issue that is close to the heart/wallet of the interest group concerned. If it is against national interest what are the other politicians doing? What is the government of the day doing? Surely they can ensure that nothing nefarious happens? Or can’t they?

If we are so aghast at this why does the Indian Government hire Lobbying firms on Capitol Hill and to lobby with the Parliamentarians in UK? Is that not the same thing? If Somanath Chatterjee, Pranab Mukherjee, L.K. Advani et al believe that what has been exposed is a shameful thing then what we are doing in the capitols of US and UK is just as shameful and the Indian Government is paying these firms the taxpayers money - our money. So maybe they should stop that too.

Or best get rid of the hypocrisy and recognize that these things happen in a democracy and ensure that it is done in a transparent manner. After all that immortal question remains, “Who will guard the guardians?”