Wednesday, June 10, 2015
Rahul Baba - You are the Winnah
And the Winnah is Rahul Gandhi. I am appalled that no media outlet has led with this story in the past couple of days. Don’t they see the significance of THE announcement by Lalu? No? That is ridiculous. I can only put it down to the lack of intellectual heft in the media these days. Damn.
Let me enlighten all and sundry about why I am so appalled at this lack of comment by the media. The endorsement by Lalu Prasad Yadav of Nitesh Kumar’s candidature for CM-ship is a straight victory for Rahul Gandhi. You can’t see it? Good lord, do I have to spell out everything for you folks?
Well then, here it is.
Let’s take a dekko at the 2010 Bihar Assembly Results. The JD(U) won 115 seats and the BJP won 91 in the 243 seat Assembly. The RJD did not do well at all and won only 22 seats. The congress got 4 seats out of; well, this has to be said sotto voce; the 243 it contested.
No No No, that the JD(U)-BJP combine swept the elections is not the awesome point that I am trying to make. The awesome thing here is that the Congress, through diligence and hard work and intelligent campaigning, achieved the miracle of getting less than what it did in October 2005. It had then won 9 seats out of the 51 it contested. Now, you gotta admit, that is talent.
Flashback done, cut to 2015…
Let’s first look at the Jodi No. 1 of 2010. Ah, but we can’t. That is so because there is this teeny weeny catch – the JD(U) and the BJP aren’t in the tight embrace that they were in in 2010. After a slightly acrimonious falling out, both the JD(U) and the BJP are aiming to win the elections on their own.
Now, whatever else you could accuse the duo of Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar, you cannot accuse them of being uninterested in power. They most definitely are. And we silly geezers can bet our bottom futi kaudi that each of them would go all out to prove a point – that life after the break up isn’t all that bad. And the power that comes with it wouldn’t hurt at all.
Lalu Prasad Yadav; the clown nonpareil, the consummate communicator, the . . . whatever else; has been pushed to a corner. He is clearly not the strong political force that he once was. In fact, he almost gulped poison while endorsing Nitish Kumar. Alright, that was a bit of exaggeration but he did mention that he would be willing to do that too, figuratively, of course, to stop the BJP from coming to power.
So what have we got here? We have got a BJP that HAS to win the elections to prove that the Modi wave, not withstanding that Anarchist in Delhi, is up and about. We have an RJD that has to make an impact in this election if it has to stay relevant in politics. And we have a Nitesh Kumar who can kiss his chances of political relevance goodbye if he does not win this time.
Do or die for the three major political entities in Bihar.
And, in the meantime, what about Rahul Baba’s party?
This time let’s assume it gets to contest about 15 seats given over by the magnanimous JD(U)-RJD combine. What you saying? They won’t be given those many seats? Oh! Come on, Mummy’s gonna help.
Let’s further assume that it manages to win seven of them. I know that would sound far-fetched to a lot of people out there, but bear with me; I am trying to make an important point here.
So even if the Congress wins about 7 seats, about 3% of the seats, my guess is that Congressmen will go to town talking about this ‘victory’.
It will be heralded as the green shoots of recovery and Rahul baba would be hailed not only as a smooth talking, one-liners maroing heir apparent but also as a sharp operator by the Congress cohorts.
And who would not want such a thing to happen to him?
Congrats Baba, you are the Winnah.